Kevin ([info]kworces) wrote,
@ 2008-10-10 21:55:00
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General Election, 2008

Recently a friend sent an email to me encouraging me to vote for John McCain. For anyone who is interested, a trimmed down version of my response is behind the cut.

I was strongly in McCain's camp in 2000 and was pretty disappointed when he lost the nomination... so much so that I wrote his name on the ballot for the general, fully knowing it didn't count since he wasn't declared as a candidate.

Anyway, if you'd told me then that he'd be the Republican nominee in 2008 I'd have thought you were nuts. I would want to believe it, but there's no way you convince me he'd survive the primary season. And as hard as it would be to convince me in 2000 that McCain would be the 2008 Republican nominee, it would be harder still to convince me that I would be supporting the Democratic candidate.

Why Obama? It probably has more to do with my disgust for the way the national GOP has been acting for the last 8 years. I lean right on economic issues and I lean left on social issues. I'd be a moderate libertarian if such a thing was allowed. So my support basically comes down to this:

Anti-GOP (all apply to McCain):

  • I like the current left/right balance on the Supreme Court. Republican appointed judges would cause a lurch to the right.
  • Questioning the patriotism of anyone who objects to abuse of executive power and protection of the rights of the accused.
  • Using fear/terrorism for political gain.
  • Being weaselly about torture
  • Everything about social conservative absolutism that any Republican candidate needs to support if he wants voters to show up in November.
  • The neo-conservative agenda for "transforming" the Middle East via Iraq. We've created some pretty nasty monsters in the last 50+ years by destabilizing regions and setting up puppet governments, and we're still doing it today.

Anti-McCain:

  • His support for the torture bill in 2006
  • Palin--my mind was made up long before she was picked, but she certainly doesn't help

Pro-Obama:

  • Doesn't demonize his opponents
  • Temperament--he's stable, respectful, and thoughtful
  • I appreciate his sense of community and public service
  • A clean break with Bush's foreign policy is needed to start repairing our image overseas. Regardless of how much is substance and how much is style, we get more accomplished with our neighbors if they don't see us as a bully.
  • I like the image of a mixed-race POTUS--I'd be lying if I said race wasn't a factor
  • Inverse of everything under the Anti-GOP list

I'm not voting for Obama just because he's anti-Bush. I certainly would have voted libertarian if Hillary Clinton had been the Democratic nominee (I think she shares some of Bush's worst qualities--hyper-secretive, politicizing everything, and intolerant of disagreement). Obama is the first major party candidate that I've ever supported for the general election. I'm very enthusiastic about voting for him in the fall.

(yes, this is a shorter version)




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[info]kworces
2008-10-11 05:57 pm UTC (link)
Re: Saddleback / extreme right

Sean Quinn at FiveThirtyEight.com has been traveling around battleground states visiting field offices. The major observation he's had about the McCain field offices is that they would be empty without Palin--she's the one generating all the volunteer enthusiasm (though it's waned a bit in the last few weeks). McCain couldn't appeal to that base on his own, and the GOP would have no GOTV operation without those volunteers. He was in a no-win position--Lose the right or lose the center. With party ID favoring Democrats he had to win both, and the extreme right has been getting its way long enough that they don't want to compromise anything.

I wonder how things might have been different if McCain had picked Huckabee. Huck would have galvanized the social conservative volunteers and given McCain the populist credibility he desperately needs now. The economic conservatives would have been angry about it--but that's where he is right now anyway. He'd get all the benefits of Palin without the drawbacks.

Anyway, I'd highly recommend the "on the road" series at fivethirtyeight.com to get a little flavor for what is going on around the country. There are photo slideshows of every stop, some really great pictures.

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